All-important Sangre de Cristo snowpack plummets to 67% of the 30-year median
Colorado has borne witness to two bouts of false spring in the past month. For example, temperatures rose to 61 degrees in Westcliffe on February 4. But often, these warm temperatures were coupled with fierce winds. Despite a fantastic start to winter when several storm systems dropped feet of snow on the region, the emergence of the predicted La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean has caused the winter storms to push further to the north, leaving the Valley windy and dry.
The evidence of the early melt was apparent in the overflowing ditches along Macey Lane and the swollen banks of Grape and Texas Creek earlier in February.
The US Weather Service SNOTEL station at South Colony in Western Custer County, which ended November at 200% of the median, is now a mere 67% as of March 1. The station at Hayden Pass above Coal Dale is worse at 61%. Custer and Western Fremont County are now considered to be in D0 (abnormally dry) drought conditions.
While the forecast shows a return to wetter winter conditions starting the week of March 10, there is still a lot of doubt about whether the atmosphere will carry enough water to pull the region out of a drought.
As a whole, the Arkansas River Basin has dropped to 75% of the median average, with the Sangre de Cristo range being the primary reason the median average has fallen for the entire basin. SNOTEL stations in the Collegiate Mountain Range near Buena Vista remain at 96%, with Monarch Pass west of Salida boasting a 119% reading.
The good news is that long-range forecasts indicate that this La Niña cycle will remain relatively moderate and short-lived. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that there is only a 59% chance that La Niña will stay in March and April and a 60% chance that it will end by May and June. While there are no certainties when talking about weather, the wettest months in the Valley are March through June, and the end of La Niña would give some hope that the spring season will be a wet one.
– Jordan Hedberg