As we write, the view across the Valley is blocked by a solidly impenetrable mist; earlier, at sunrise, low clouds unfurled to reveal skiffs and fields of snow on the high peaks; the ranch rain gauge read .07 inch of precipitation. The forecast for the Tribune publication dates indicates a perhaps wishful, but nonetheless meteorologically science-based, 50% to 40% possibility (the move from “likely” to “chance”) of snow showers.
In the expanded, friendly, chatty weatherspeak from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Pueblo, “Though models still consistently show a system coming through in Thursday into Friday timeframe, there is still a lot of run-to-run and model-to-model disagreement…Overall, it does seem likely that we will see a cool down, and meaningful moisture and precipitation chances at least for the high country…For now, our weekend looks to be a bit of a lull between systems. Of course, either system could speed up or slow down and change that, but for now, our weekend looks to bring near- to slightly-normal temperatures, and mainly, dry, quiet weather.”
By the time you’re reading this, the discussion and probabilities will have been decided by Mother Nature. But here’s the rub: it’s that “dry, quiet weather” the Valley has experienced the last couple of weeks that contributes to the larger issues of climate. The concern—from chatter on the street to ominous articles like physicist, science writer Mark Buchanon’s “Deep warming” on aeon.com—is the long-term effect of drought and drought-like conditions on local moisture levels, soil and growing conditions, and expectations for wildflowers and gardening next spring.
Here in the Valley, we rely on our eyes, longer term experience, and the South Colony SNOTEL station to inform us what to expect. The SNOTEL readings are not encouraging. As of last Monday, there was a paltry .9 inch of water equivalency from a 6.8-inch precipitation. That compares to last year’s same date 5.7-inch water equivalency. Overall, the Arkansas River Basin, which is monitored by ten other SNOTEL stations in addition to South Colony, is at 20% of the 30-year average snowpack; South Colony is at 24% of median, and 4% of November 17 median. These reports are a daily rendering within what the US Drought Monitor regards as a current mix of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions in Custer County.
Climatologically, our winter weather is affected this year by the La Niña effect: cooler Pacific Ocean surface temperatures resulting in warmer, dryer conditions in this part of the continental United States. According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) monthly discussion of these swings, it is considered a “weak” La Niña, and in early 2026 will further weaken to a neutral status. In the meantime, the CPC expects our area to experience warmer temperatures and 50/50 chances of average snowfall through the reminder of 2025.
Otherwise, a variety of NOAA and CPC “snow maps” indicate that the high peaks in the Sangre de Christos that border us to the west will continue to accumulate snow as systems roll through, even when the Valley floor remains dry. As we very well know, the spring snow melt will ultimately tell the tale of the winter’s impact; right now it’s literally up in the air.
As we finish writing, bright sunshine prevails under clear skies, the wind teases all around the edges, and the peaks still shine white and bright. We live in Custer County!
– W.A. Ewing
